Experts

  • Affiliation : Chairman and Founder, Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding
  • Affiliation : President, President, The Middle East Institute (MEI)
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The Middle East remains one of the zones of high tension and instability in the contemporary world. Today, new challenges – e.g., international terrorism, the crises in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Syria – are adding to the old and deeply rooted problems created by the Arab-Israeli conflict. The un...

International Security Index iSi increased to 2811 points. Satanovsky, Sager comment events of the week.

02.04.2013

MOSCOW, APRIL 2, 2013. PIR PRESS “In Israel, a new government coalition was created. Despite the opinion that this coalition is unstable and unlikely to last for a long, I would have said the opposite - it is very stable. The new government will deal with the pressing problems of Israel, not with a scam with a Palestinian state, which is uninteresting for Israeli leaders and voters. If Ramallah was really interested in dialogue, not in provocations, it would start with any Israeli government”, - President of the Institute of Middle East Studies Evgeny Satanovsky.

During the week of March 25 – April 1, 2013, the International Security Index iSi increased to 2811 points. In the DPRK the missile and artillery had been places in full combat readiness in response to the ongoing military maneuvers of South Korea and the United States at the borders of the North. The authorities in Pyongyang declared their readiness to start the war with the South. In Syria, the fighting between the army and the rebels continued in Deraa and Homs; in Damascus the University was shelled, there were victims. At the Arab League summit in Doha the agreement to support the Syrian opposition was held. In Egypt, President Mohammed Mursi postponed for six months the date of parliamentary elections, obeying to the decision of the Administrative Court. Myanmar sectarian violence continued; 40 people were killed. In the Central African Republic took place coup d’état; the opposition movement Seleka seized the power in the country. Its leader Michel Dzhotodia declared himself the President of the state. Terrorist attacks occurred in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Mali. In South Africa at the BRICS summit a decision was made to create a self-managed foreign exchange reserves with $ 100 billion budget.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Evgeny Satanovsky (Russia), President of the Institute of Middle East Studies – by phone from Moscow: The security situation in the world is rapidly deteriorating. The situation in Syria has shown that stabilization is a very remote perspective. Speculation about possible talks between the government and the opposition in Damascus distributed by the mass-media are just another myth. It was invented to cover up the stalemate. Such negotiations will lead to nothing and influence nothing. The civil war in Syria will continue to evolve incrementally and reach an irreversible stage. The threat of the conflict is in spilling over into neighboring countries. Continuing unrests in Egypt is a real danger for the country. Egypt can become a second Syria. Clashes won’t stop for years and decades and the country will sink into a civil war. As a result Egypt would be transformed into Islamic Republic like the one in Iran or collapse. There is a high possibility of war between Israel and Egypt, and the war over the distribution of the Nile waters. There are no ways of stabilization of the situation in Middle East. The sooner the opposite parties will exhaust themselves in mutual slaughter, the earlier the conflict will calm down.

In Israel, a new government coalition was created. Despite the opinion that this coalition is unstable and unlikely to last for a long, I would have said the opposite - it is very stable. The new government will deal with the pressing problems of Israel, not a scam with a Palestinian state, which is uninteresting for Israeli leaders and voters. If Ramallah was really interested in dialogue, not in provocations, it would start with any Israeli government. So far, the best that can be done in the interests of the Palestinians is to disperse the corrupt Palestinian Authority and to re-occupy the part of the West Bank, under their control.

Abdulaziz Sager (Saudi Arabia) – Chairman and Founder of the Gulf Research Center, President of Sager Group Holding – by e-mail from Dubai: The political crisis in Egypt is at the center of world attention. But the political crisis is compounded by a dire economic crisis, which so far has not been in the center of attention. The Islamist government enjoys legitimacy as an elected government and must be given a reasonable chance to administer the state.  Opposition groups are disunited and have a limited popular base, but are able to paralyze the state. Holding a Parliamentary election again may be the only viable way to solve the problem peacefully.

There was information in Mass Media that the Arab League might boycott activities of NPT review process in disagreement with the fact that the conference on Middle East nuclear weapon free zone establishing has not been carried out. But Middle East nuclear weapon free zone remains a farfetched objective. Little faith exists in the region about the ability of the NPT review conference to make any meaningful progress towards the establishment of the free from nuclear zone.   

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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